A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
